Iran continues to have serious concerns about the planned TRIPP route through Armenian territory. For Tehran, the issue is not only whether the project entails any restrictions on Armenia’s territorial integrity or sovereignty. Iran’s main questions are who will control the route, what role third countries and organizations will have, and whether it could eventually be used against Iran, according to Iranian political scientist Pouya Hosseini.
According to his assessment, Iran initially stated that Armenia’s territorial integrity and sovereignty were its “red lines.”
When it was announced within the TRIPP framework that Armenia would not lose any territory and would retain sovereignty over the route, Tehran somewhat softened its position.
However, as new details about the project have emerged, Iran’s concerns have intensified again.
According to Hosseini, one of the issues is what share the United States will have in the project and how much control will remain with Armenia.
Questions have also arisen over security along the route and whether this function could be transferred to an international organization or another third party.
Information about investment structures associated with the project and their representatives has raised additional questions for Iran.
As a result, according to the Iranian political scientist, Tehran has still not received clear answers to all the questions that concern it.
Armenian authorities have repeatedly sought to reassure Iran that the TRIPP project is not directed against the country.
However, according to Hosseini, Tehran does not want to rely solely on statements and is waiting for a full clarification of the agreements and the project’s actual mechanisms.
The involvement of the United States is particularly sensitive for Iran.
Tehran has serious trust issues with Washington, given its previous experience with agreements between the two countries.
Consequently, a question arises in Iran: if agreements previously reached between the United States and Iran have been violated, what guarantee is there that the American side will not use its role in a project passing through Armenian territory against Iran?
This distrust is particularly significant under the current regional circumstances.
“The United States has military bases in several countries neighboring Iran. Before the latest war, those countries repeatedly assured us that the U.S. military infrastructure on their territory would not be used against Iran. However, during the war, the situation changed, and Iran faced the fact that attacks were also carried out from U.S. military infrastructure located in countries across the region,” the expert said.
Since then, he continued, Tehran has come to view any American presence in the region, particularly in the immediate vicinity of its borders, as an additional security risk.
This context also gives rise to the most dangerous scenario involving TRIPP.
If, after the route becomes operational, Iran sees an American presence there and concludes that the infrastructure could be used against it, the situation could escalate sharply.
“If TRIPP is used against Iran, to blockade Iran, create an economic crisis for the Iranian people, and create a national security threat, then those actions will be regarded as hostile acts, as a form of declaring war on Iran,” the Iranian political scientist said.
In that case, according to his assessment, Iran could also respond militarily by targeting infrastructure it considers part of actions directed against it.