The change in relations between Armenia and Russia was caused not by Armenia violating its allied relations, but by Russia and the CSTO failing to fulfill their obligations. This was stated by regional affairs expert Armen Petrosyan.
According to him, relations of strategic importance currently remain between Armenia and Russia, but they can no longer be characterized as allied relations.
“In Practice, We Do Not Have Allied Relations”
According to Petrosyan, there are still circles in both Russia and Armenia that continue to view relations between the two countries as an alliance.
“At this point, Russia and Armenia are indeed allied countries according to the documents, but in practice we do not have allied relations,” he said.
According to the expert, Armenia and Russia continue to maintain deep relations of strategic importance, but their substance no longer corresponds to the previous format.
In his assessment, Armenia’s five-year government program at this stage also contains no clear emphasis on restoring a strategic alliance, although these approaches could be reconsidered if the situation changes.
Russia Cannot Offer the Relationship Format That Existed Before 2022
According to Petrosyan, Russia itself is currently unable to offer Armenia the relationship format that existed before 2022.
“At this point, Russia itself cannot offer the format of relations that existed before 2022,” he said.
The expert considers one of the main reasons to be the failure of Russia and other members of the organization to fulfill the obligations they assumed within the CSTO.
According to him, when Armenia’s sovereign territory came under attack, the CSTO failed to fulfill the obligations stipulated in the relevant documents.
In this context, Petrosyan also referred to an earlier statement by Russian President Vladimir Putin that the Armenian side had argued that Armenia’s border had been violated, but since the border had not been delimited and demarcated, the CSTO could not make an appropriate decision.
According to Petrosyan, if Russia is an ally and the CSTO is regarded as an allied security system, such a position is difficult to reconcile with the logic of allied relations when Armenia’s sovereign territory has come under attack.
Petrosyan believes Armenia’s reassessment of its foreign policy position was a natural consequence of the situation.
“It is obvious that it was not Armenia that violated the allied relationship. Rather, its allies failed to fulfill their obligations, and it was natural for Armenia to change its position,” he said.
The Upcoming Moscow Meeting Could Open a New Chapter in Relations
At the same time, Petrosyan attaches importance to the upcoming meeting between the leaders of Armenia and Russia, stressing that it could differ significantly from their previous contacts.
According to him, the meeting held on the sidelines of the SCO was not, by its nature, a full-fledged format for bilateral negotiations, whereas the planned meeting in Russia will be aimed at a more in-depth discussion of issues on the Armenian-Russian bilateral agenda.
According to Petrosyan, each side has its own expectations of the other.
For Armenia, these include, in particular, the issue of railway management and various restrictions imposed by Russia on Armenia.
One of the Russian side’s key expectations, in his assessment, is the holding of a referendum in Armenia to understand public opinion and clarify the country’s future direction.
Petrosyan believes the upcoming meeting could open a new and more realistic chapter in Armenian-Russian relations.
In his assessment, although there are pessimistic forecasts in expert and media circles regarding the meeting, sometimes including predictions of aggressive developments, he does not consider such a scenario likely.
The expert attributes this partly to Russia’s current situation.
Relations Should Be Brought Into Line With Reality
According to Petrosyan, Russia is currently in a difficult situation due to the war in Ukraine and serious problems related to its economy and domestic infrastructure.
Therefore, in his view, Moscow does not need new serious problems in its relations with Armenia at this stage.
“Potential problems in Armenian-Russian relations should not be viewed solely within a bilateral framework,” Petrosyan said, stressing that other actors could also take advantage of the situation, including the European Union, Turkey and other regional powers.
According to the expert, the existing legal and contractual framework between Armenia and Russia currently does not fully correspond to the actual substance of the two countries’ political and economic relations.
Therefore, an important outcome of the upcoming negotiations could be a clearer definition of each side’s expectations and making them more measurable “in practice.”
Petrosyan believes this could create an opportunity to give bilateral relations new substance and place them on a more realistic foundation.