Russian President Vladimir Putin’s statement that Russia is ready, if necessary, to withdraw the 102nd military base from Armenia even tomorrow is an instrument of negotiating pressure. Security expert Narek Nersisyan holds this view.
“In terms of the negotiating threshold, this is a projection that the most Russia can lose is the withdrawal of this base. In other words, in their assessment, the worst-case scenario for them is precisely this outcome, while we, as the Republic of Armenia, have no other leverage,” Nersisyan said.
However, according to him, beyond the withdrawal of the 102nd military base, there are much more important issues for Armenia that should be considered.
In particular, this concerns Russian border troops.
Withdrawing the Border Guards Would Hurt Russian Interests More
Nersisyan recalled that the 102nd military base is not the only component of military cooperation between Armenia and Russia.
In 2016, an agreement on the Joint Group of Forces was also signed, which, according to him, is based on the 102nd military base and Armenian military units.
However, in the expert’s assessment, one of the most important components Putin did not mention is the Russian border troops.
“Why not speak specifically about withdrawing the border guards?” he said.
According to him, most of those currently serving within the Russian border troops are also Armenian citizens.
For example, they serve in Armenia’s Ararat Province, in the Artashat direction and in other areas on a contractual basis.
In the expert’s view, the withdrawal of the border troops could cause greater damage to the interests of the Russian Federation than the removal of the 102nd military base.
“The border guards are the instrument that prevents the sovereign Republic of Armenia from being directly informed about what is happening along 300 kilometers of its border. Another state — the Russian Federation — has precise information about this,” Nersisyan said.
According to the expert, the border troops also have practical significance in terms of Armenia’s sovereignty and control over infrastructure.
“The Railway Partially Loses Its Political Leverage”
According to Nersisyan, without a border troop formation, Russia could also lose certain political instruments, including in the context of control over infrastructure placed under concession management.
In his assessment, this is one of the reasons why the issue of border troops may be more sensitive for Russia.
“Putin did not speak about this. Why? Because serious preparations could actually begin very quickly on our side, and those 300 kilometers of border could be brought under sovereign possession and use, with us becoming the actual authority,” he said.
Gyumri’s Social Problems
At the same time, Nersisyan noted that the withdrawal of the 102nd military base should not be viewed simply as the removal of a military unit.
According to him, the base is not merely the facility where servicemen and ammunition are stationed.
It includes infrastructure, logistics hubs and the social component connected to them.
The expert also addressed the social consequences of a possible rapid withdrawal of the 102nd military base, particularly for Gyumri.
“I can see myself that, as of today, if we abruptly remove the base right now, it would create certain problems and also social tension within Gyumri itself,” he said.
Nersisyan also noted the other side of the base’s presence.
Russia operates a consulate in Gyumri, which, according to him, plays an important role beyond simply providing consular services.
In addition, many Gyumri residents are Russian citizens, which is also connected with Russia’s long-standing presence in the region.
“We need to prepare for this,” the security expert concluded.