Armenia is unlikely to transition to a fully professional army for at least the next 20 years. Young people are expected to continue being conscripted, possibly for shorter periods such as six months, according to military expert Leonid Nersisyan.
He argues that the concept of a professional army in Armenia should not be interpreted as a complete shift to a contract-based system. Instead, a combined model that includes both mandatory service and contract personnel is considered more realistic and effective.
In the coming years, service terms may be reduced. The current 18-month period could decrease to 12 months and, in the longer term, potentially to six months. However, given the current geopolitical and regional security environment, reducing service below six months or eliminating conscription altogether is not considered feasible.
Nersisyan also highlights the importance of short-term service in building a reserve force. A service period ranging from six months to one year allows the military to train sufficient personnel and identify candidates suitable for long-term contract service.
Mandatory conscription therefore remains one of the main sources for recruiting professional soldiers. Existing programs already allow conscripts to transition into contract service after completing part of their mandatory duty.
Overall, the most realistic scenario for Armenia in the coming decades is a hybrid military model that ensures adequate manpower while gradually increasing the level of professionalization.