Relations between Armenia and the United States are currently undergoing two important phases of qualitative change. The first concerns substance, while the second relates to the format of the relationship. This was stated by political analyst Narek Minasyan.
According to him, whereas under the previous Democratic administration Washington built the partnership largely on a values-based foundation — democracy, human rights, and related issues — the priorities of the new administration are fundamentally different. Economic interest has now become the key factor.
Economic interest as the foundation of foreign policy
Minasyan notes that the current U.S. administration is reassessing and building its relations with the European Union, individual European countries, as well as Mexico, Brazil, Canada, and other states primarily through the prism of economic interest. A wide range of leverage is used in this process, including tariffs and mechanisms of economic pressure.
In the analyst’s assessment, over the next three years the economic component will be Washington’s top priority in Armenian–U.S. relations, and the Armenian side should likewise focus its policy on deepening economic partnership.
From recipient to partner
The second important change, according to Minasyan, concerns the format of relations. Whereas Armenia was previously viewed mainly as a recipient of assistance, including in the military sphere, the situation is now evolving.
According to him, Armenia is gradually moving toward the role of a partner, both in economic and military cooperation. This means that the United States is prepared to sign contracts with Armenia, assume joint commitments, and sell military-grade products.
Minasyan places particular emphasis on the fact that the sale of intelligence-purpose unmanned aerial vehicles was carried out as a military transaction rather than as assistance. In his assessment, this is likely the first such deal with Armenia under the Foreign Military Sales program, opening the door to further cooperation. The analyst stresses that the U.S. approach is straightforward: “you have the financial resources, we have the technology — a deal can be made.”
The South Caucasus in the focus of U.S. attention
According to Minasyan, against the backdrop of a revision of U.S. foreign policy priorities, the South Caucasus has come into focus. He recalls that as recently as a year ago there were concerns that the region might not be of interest to the new administration at all, and that the strategic partnership document signed by Armenia with the previous U.S. administration could be nullified.
However, in his assessment, developments moved in the opposite direction, including as a result of diplomatic efforts by the Armenian side. It is now clear that Washington intends to expand its economic and infrastructure involvement in the region, thereby placing the South Caucasus among U.S. geopolitical priorities.
Economic presence as an indirect guarantee
The political analyst emphasizes that although Armenia does not receive direct security guarantees, the economic component creates a certain accompanying field of indirect guarantees. According to him, within the framework of the TRIPP project and in parallel with it, Armenia and Azerbaijan receive various “bonuses” in the form of bilateral memoranda and agreements that encourage the parties to move forward in line with the current processes rather than a military scenario.
Minasyan recalls that on August 8 the Armenian side signed three memoranda in the areas of communications, artificial intelligence, and other fields, and their practical results are already visible. These include around USD 4 billion in planned investments, as well as growing activity by U.S. companies in Armenia.
Regional balancing
As for Azerbaijan, the analyst notes that Washington has attempted to ensure a certain balance. If Armenia received a strategic partnership charter, similar steps were also taken with Baku, and relevant agreements were reached, including in the fields of energy and artificial intelligence.
In his assessment, although Armenia’s agreements are currently one step ahead — both in substance and in the stage of implementation — these “bonuses” have also stimulated Baku’s interest in developing relations with the United States.
The factor of consistency
Minasyan underscores the importance of consistency on the part of the U.S. side. According to him, messages from U.S. leadership clearly indicate that the August 8 statement was only the first step. The main task for the Armenian side now is to turn these agreements and the peace declaration into practical reality, based on mutual economic interests and the deepening of ties.