From the outset, it was clear that a single unified opposition alliance would not be formed in Armenia. This was stated by political analyst Suren Suryants.
According to him, the idea of a “united opposition” is an artificial thesis: in no country do all opposition forces unite on a single electoral list. Suryants emphasizes that, unlike the authorities, the opposition does not have a vertical structure and is strong precisely because of its diversity. In his view, the opposition field represents the interests of various social and political segments, which makes it substantive and competitive.
The formation of consolidation centers
According to the analyst, consolidation centers are currently emerging within the opposition field in the form of several powerful poles capable of creating a genuinely competitive environment in elections.
He noted that a process of consolidation is taking place around Gagik Tsarukyan, on the platform of the “Proposal for Armenia” initiative, where other political actors are also participating in discussions. At the same time, Suryants said there is consolidation around Robert Kocharyan, as well as around Samvel Karapetyan. He does not rule out the emergence of other opposition centers in the near future.
In the analyst’s view, these processes are causing serious concern within the ruling authorities.
Voter turnout as the decisive factor
According to Suryants, if at least 55% of voters take part in the elections — around 1.4 million citizens — the defeat of the incumbent authorities will become inevitable. He argues that even the use of administrative resources or repressive mechanisms would not change this outcome.
The political analyst maintains that Nikol Pashinyan’s only real ally today is no longer part of the political system or social groups, but rather the apathetic segment of society. In his view, pressure, repression, and a tense political atmosphere serve precisely this purpose: keeping society demoralized, reducing faith in the possibility of changing power through elections, and keeping people away from polling stations.
The opposition’s main challenge
According to Suryants, the main — and in fact the only — task facing the opposition is to bring voters to the polling stations. He believes this can only be achieved through active campaigning, clear messaging, realistic programs, effective leadership, and political formulas that are understandable to the public.
It should be noted that, according to data published by the Central Electoral Commission of Armenia, 2,489,031 citizens are eligible to participate in the parliamentary elections scheduled for June 7. The largest number of voters is registered in Yerevan — 843,278 voters. It is followed by Armavir Province with 224,696 voters. The smallest number of voters is registered in Vayots Dzor Province — 43,751 citizens.