Political strategist Vigen Hakobyan believes it is difficult to view the election results as logical given the high level of voter turnout.
According to him, the outcome was unexpected.
“It was widely assumed that if turnout reached close to 1.5 million voters, it would be extremely difficult for the authorities to secure such a result. We saw turnout reach about 59 percent, which is relatively high. Under those conditions, I do not see a legitimate scenario in which the government could achieve such numbers,” Hakobyan said.
He noted that most pre-election opinion polls projected no more than around 600,000 votes for the ruling party.
“That seemed reasonable. In the previous election, the authorities received around 688,000 votes. Since then, many events have occurred, and most observers understood that public support had declined significantly. That is why more than 700,000 votes raises serious questions for me,” he added.
Elections Extend Beyond Voting Day
Hakobyan argues that focusing solely on election day is a mistake.
“An election is not just the day people cast their ballots. It is the entire process. Throughout the campaign we witnessed threats, polarization, and an atmosphere of hostility. But there were also less visible developments,” he said.
He believes that numerous arrests and detentions carried out under the banner of combating vote-buying also affected the election environment.
According to Hakobyan, many of those actions appeared targeted.
“People who were expected to play an important role in organizing, monitoring, or supporting opposition activities were removed from the process. In effect, those considered dangerous by the authorities were sidelined,” he stated.
The Impact of Fear
The political strategist argues that such measures inevitably affect both voters and political activists.
“When people see politically active individuals being detained or arrested, it has a clear psychological effect,” he said.
Hakobyan emphasized that he has participated in election processes in various capacities since 1990 and does not recall a similar situation.
Victory Declared Before the Count Was Complete
Discussing election night, Hakobyan recalled that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan declared victory while only a limited share of votes had been counted.
At that stage, most processed ballots came from rural communities, while results from Yerevan and major cities had barely begun to arrive.
“In those circumstances, the prime minister not only declared victory but effectively announced the percentage by which he would win,” Hakobyan noted.
A Message to the System
In his view, the statement was aimed primarily at the government’s own ranks.
“It appears there were doubts and a degree of demoralization within the ruling team because many understood that the available figures were insufficient to guarantee victory. The announcement was intended to signal that the outcome had already been decided,” he argued.
Hakobyan also believes the statement may have sent a message to officials working within local and territorial election commissions.
“When a winner and even a victory percentage are announced before the process is complete, that becomes a signal to those still involved in counting votes. In that sense, I see it as a tool for influencing the electoral process,” he said.
At the same time, when asked whether these circumstances prove election fraud, Hakobyan responded cautiously, stressing the distinction between political assessments and legal evidence.