Sociological surveys published ahead of Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections continue to trigger active discussions across the political field. Data released by the International Republican Institute (IRI) and GALLUP Armenia reveal significant differences both in party ratings and in the number of undecided voters. At the same time, political circles are debating not only the accuracy of the figures, but also the political trends and public sentiments hidden behind them.
8% May Still Change Their Decision
According to the latest survey conducted by the International Republican Institute (IRI), 32% of respondents are ready to vote for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party. Among citizens firmly intending to participate in the election, that figure rises to 38%.
Survey data show that 7% are prepared to support Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia bloc, 4% favor Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia alliance, 2% support the Republican Party of Armenia led by Gurgen Simonyan, and another 2% back Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia party. Arman Tatoyan’s Wings of Unity, Vardan Ghukasyan’s DOK party, and the “I Am Against Everyone” party each received 1% support. Meanwhile, 43% of respondents either refused to identify a preferred political force or stated that they remain undecided.
According to the poll, 81% of respondents said they are confident in their choice, while 8% stated that although they are mostly decided, they could still change their decision before election day. Asked whether the elections would be free and fair, 34% answered that they would definitely be free and fair, while another 37% said they would probably be so.
When asked which political figure they trust the most, 29% named Nikol Pashinyan, 9% named Samvel Karapetyan, 5% chose Ararat Mirzoyan, and 4% selected Robert Kocharyan. Compared to the February poll, trust in Pashinyan increased by 9%, while the ratings of Karapetyan and Kocharyan each declined by 1%.
Young Voters Are Less Likely to Support the Government
According to the survey, younger voters are the least likely to support Civil Contract, while the party receives its strongest backing among citizens older than 56. A similar pattern is visible in public trust toward politicians: only 15% of young respondents named Nikol Pashinyan, while among voters older than 56 the figure reaches 45%.
At the same time, 61% of respondents believe the country is developing in the right direction, while 28% think otherwise. Compared to February, the number of supporters of the “right direction” has increased by 14%.
For 17% of respondents, security and border issues remain Armenia’s main challenge. Another 15% identified the economy and unemployment as the country’s primary problem, while 10% expressed concern about rising prices.
GALLUP Armenia Presents a Different Picture
At the same time, another survey conducted in Armenia by GALLUP Armenia presented a significantly different electoral picture.
According to the published data, if parliamentary elections were held next Sunday, 28.8% of voters would support the Civil Contract party. Strong Armenia ranks second with 14.9%, while the Armenia alliance is third with 12.1%.
The survey also suggests that two additional political forces have a realistic chance of entering parliament. According to the poll, 8.7% are ready to support Prosperous Armenia, while 5.8% favor Wings of Unity. Several political forces still remain below the electoral threshold but are approaching it.
These include the Democracy Law Discipline party with 3.4%, Bright Armenia with 2.9%, the Republican Party of Armenia with 2.8%, and the reformist New Force party with 2.7%.
Another 1.9% stated that they would vote for the democratic “I Am Against Everyone” party, while the ratings of other political forces do not exceed 1%. Meanwhile, 8.6% refused to answer the question, 3.4% struggled to make a choice, and 0.9% said they would spoil their ballot.
Where Is the Truth?
The differences between the IRI and GALLUP Armenia surveys were addressed by Gagik Minasyan, a member of the executive body of the Republican Party of Armenia. According to him, the first major difference lies in the timing of the surveys.
He noted that the IRI poll was conducted on May 5–11, when the election campaign had only started on May 8. In contrast, GALLUP Armenia carried out its surveys on May 20–21, during an already active stage of political campaigning.
Minasyan also drew attention to the differing numbers of undecided voters and respondents refusing to answer. According to his data, undecided voters accounted for 20% in the IRI poll, while 23% refused to answer. In the GALLUP Armenia survey, those figures stood at 8% and 8.6% respectively.
The RPA representative concluded that the differences between the two surveys may be explained both by timing and by changes in voter alignment amid the intensification of the election campaign.
Higher Turnout Will Benefit the Authorities
Former Justice Minister Arpine Hovhannisyan also reacted to the IRI findings. She stated that she does not treat the “absolute figures” of polls as unquestionable truth, but considers the underlying trends and hidden signals extremely important.
According to Hovhannisyan, the most notable indicator in the IRI survey is the connection between rising turnout and willingness to vote for the authorities.
In her assessment, higher turnout at this stage, if achieved, would primarily benefit the “consolidated pro-government electorate.” At the same time, she stressed that the opposition’s main task is to consolidate its own voter base and ensure supporters reach polling stations.
The “We Are Better Than You” Thesis Cannot Win
Hovhannisyan also criticized several approaches within the opposition camp. According to her, an arrogant attitude toward voters’ daily life, language, and habits alienates people.
She argued that the thesis “we are better than you” cannot defeat the approach “I am one of you.”
The former minister also warned against creating exaggerated expectations, recalling the consequences of the wartime “Artsrun-style rhetoric,” which eventually led to disappointment and public apathy.
“There is life after June 7 as well,” Hovhannisyan stated, emphasizing that the opposition must prepare not only for a victory scenario, but also for a clear action plan in case of an unfavorable result.