The current U.S. strategy, both in substance and in form, is built on a logic of acting from a position of strength. According to political analyst Allen Gevondyan, this is not only about the possible initiation of military operations, but also about using the factor of force as a mechanism of leverage in negotiation processes.
“This is a well-established political technology in international politics. However, this level of concentration of forces around Iran is already crossing certain red lines,” Gevondyan notes, emphasizing that there is now a hyperconcentration of forces surrounding Iran.
In case of escalation, Iran is ready to respond
According to the analyst, this is not limited to naval forces alone. Significant military build-ups are also observed on the territories of U.S. allied states. Although this may be viewed as a worst-case scenario, Washington, he says, does not shy away from publicly демонstrating such a policy.
“The current American policy openly declares that it approaches all issues from the standpoint of its national interests, as well as Israel’s national interests, proclaiming force as the main factor,” says Gevondyan.
Iran, he argues, is prepared for a potential military escalation. However, the notion of “preparedness” is multilayered and depends on who delivers strikes, at what scale, and in which directions.
Although some Arab countries periodically declare that no military operations will be conducted from their territories, Gevondyan notes that reality may present a different picture.
“Iran will respond — and not only against Israel. We already had a precedent when, years ago, we watched online as Iranian missiles were heading toward Israel. I believe this time Iran will not limit itself to that,” he emphasizes.
Iran’s response could be very powerful
“Iran is a state with a unique political culture. It is one of the most powerful countries in the region, with a population of around 85 million, one of the youngest societies in the world, which has managed to develop high technologies even under sanctions,” says Gevondyan.
According to him, Iranian drones are now considered among the best in the world, and some of their models have even been used as a technological basis in the U.S. military.
Ground infiltrations and regional destabilization
Gevondyan also does not rule out a scenario of ground infiltrations. He notes that in recent weeks attempts have already been made to create pockets of instability inside Iran.
“In this process, I believe ISIS militants being released from prisons in Syria will also be involved. They may be used as a tool to infiltrate Iranian territory,” the analyst states.
The scale of escalation and its consequences, he says, could be severe both for our region and for the entire Middle East. If the U.S. succeeds in undermining Iran’s political stability through pressure and altering certain components of its governance system, the situation could change radically.
Attempts at regime change
“Iran is a theocratic state where the country’s leader is the Rahbar — in this case, Khamenei. There are certain tensions within the system of governance between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and the presidency,” says Gevondyan.
In his view, attempts at regime change will be made, and such demands may already have been conveyed to Tehran. At the same time, the overall state of readiness around Iran is evident, including along the direction of its northern neighbor, Azerbaijan.