At least at the current stage, Azerbaijan’s primary target in military rearmament is unequivocally Armenia. This was stated by Vitaly Mangasaryan, head of the “Henaket” Analytical Center. According to him, circulating claims that Baku is acquiring weapons for possible actions against Iran are not serious at this stage.
“One can theoretically imagine that in a 30–40 year perspective, Azerbaijan’s plans might also include certain actions against Iran. But at this stage, it is obvious: the primary target is us,” Mangasaryan notes.
He recalls that after the 2020 war and the final depopulation of Artsakh in 2023, Azerbaijan suffered significant losses — both in human resources and in technical equipment.
“Naturally, these losses must be replenished. Now, alongside filling this gap, Azerbaijan is also looking somewhat further ahead,” he emphasizes.
According to the analyst, in this matter Baku considers various scenarios: a possible change of power in Armenia, regional developments, and instability in neighboring countries.
He notes that the chapter of wars may appear formally closed, yet the global realignments taking place demonstrate that power politics has returned to the center of international relations.
Drawing parallels with global processes, the analyst reminds that today even leaders of major states openly voice territorial claims.
“If one day we wake up and a leader of this or that state says that a certain part of Armenia belongs to him — what should we do? Try to resist, or simply give it away?” Mangasaryan asks.
In his view, if a state adopts a policy based on the principle of “whatever they want, we give,” then talking about buying weapons and developing defense capabilities becomes meaningless.
“If that is the policy, then what are we even talking about? It is simply a path to destruction,” Vitaly Mangasaryan concludes.