It is currently impossible to accurately assess the transit potential of the “Trump route.” This was stated by economist Suren Parsyan.
According to him, Armenia should not hope for large sums from transit, but should already today begin analyzing how to use this route to export its own goods to external markets, which goods and in which markets may be in demand.
“In order to effectively use the opportunities in this direction, we need to act now: first of all, understand what goods Armenia can offer to the markets of Central Asia and China. It is obvious that agricultural products are unlikely to become our advantage: the countries of Central Asia produce them in much larger volumes and at a lower price. At this stage, the only industry that has real export potential and can reach China at a relatively low cost is the mining industry,” he noted.
The assessment of opportunities must be approached more objectively and realistically. “We should not create the illusion in our society that everyone will start passing through in transit, they will pay us for it, and we will no longer need to work,” Parsyan insists. He once again emphasized that at this stage only certain sectors, in particular the mining industry, can benefit from this route, given the current situation.
“Very often, when people try to pit Russian and American interests against each other on this issue, I always point out the following: the number one user of the Trump route will be mining enterprises with Russian capital. That is why the Russian side has been so restrained in its assessments,” Parsyan said.
Speaking about the transit potential of the Trump route, he noted that at the moment it is difficult to predict anything clearly: whether other countries will use this route will become clear with time.
“Numerous analytical materials are published and circulated stating that Armenia can provide transit for 10 million tons. However, these 10 million tons refer to east–west shipments, and in reality only a very small part will pass through Armenia under equal conditions,” Parsyan explained.
He added that China may use the Azerbaijan–Georgia–Europe route as well as the Azerbaijan–Armenia–Turkey route via the Trump route. According to the economist, for China this route will be an alternative one. China will still primarily consider the route through Georgia, especially given the existing infrastructure in that country.
“China has already acquired a port in Georgia for a long term, meaning it has already created certain infrastructure in Georgia, unlike in Armenia,” he said.
Furthermore, Turkey is currently building a railway from Kars to Nakhichevan, which will essentially reduce transit through Armenian territory and may even lead to the territory of Armenia effectively not being used at all, while the Yeraskh checkpoint will, in essence, remain idle. In other words, various projects are being implemented that reduce Armenia’s transit opportunities, he summarized.