The Washington meeting between Pashinyan, Trump, and Aliyev was organized with a single purpose: to bolster Washington’s position ahead of the U.S.-Russia presidential summit in Alaska. This assessment was provided by expert Ayk Ayvazyan.
According to him, Trump is currently amassing leverage, including through Armenia. The TRIPP project, discussions about the potential withdrawal of Russia’s 102nd military base, and Prime Minister Pashinyan’s refusal to attend the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Intergovernmental Council meeting on August 15, citing a vacation, are all interconnected elements of this strategy. Ayvazyan noted that Pashinyan likely received assurances from the U.S. president that the United States would provide support in security, energy, and investment matters.
“I am more than certain that none of the promises made by the United States will ultimately be fulfilled. Pashinyan will simply be abandoned. He will fulfill all his commitments, but when it’s their turn, a thousand excuses will emerge as to why those promises cannot be kept,” Ayvazyan stated.
Strategic Maneuvering by the U.S.
Ayvazyan argued that Pashinyan’s current stance is advantageous to the U.S., as it provides an additional lever to pressure the Russian president and push for a ceasefire. However, the expert is convinced that Moscow will not make concessions, as it views a ceasefire at this stage as the beginning of a strategic defeat. Consequently, Russia appears prepared to temporarily sacrifice its positions in Armenia, though Ayvazyan believes this will be a short-term phenomenon.
Moscow’s Legal Countermeasure
Ayvazyan is confident that at some point, Russia will challenge the legality of all documents signed in Washington.
“The Chairman of the Russian Lawyers’ Association and former Russian Prime Minister Sergei Stepashin, along with presidential advisor Anton Kobyakov, have stated that, from a legal perspective, the Soviet Union’s dissolution in 1991 was unlawful. This implies that what is currently happening in Ukraine is an internal matter of the USSR. It also means that all documents signed by Soviet republics with external actors without Moscow’s consent are similarly unlawful. While the issue of the USSR’s dissolution has not yet been officially raised, a court ruling could be issued at some point, formally launching this process,” the expert explained.