Political strategist Vigen Hakobyan believes that the success of the impeachment process and the potential change of power depends not only on parliamentary mechanisms but also on the activity of street movements.
“The impeachment process is a complex and multifaceted issue. It is not limited to political processes in parliament alone. Street pressure is also necessary,” Hakobyan noted.
According to him, at the initial stage, the opposition will have to fight for the votes of the so-called “independent” deputies, and at the next stage, try to win over part of the members of the ruling Civil Contract faction. However, this is only possible if an atmosphere is created in the country where staying in the party becomes more dangerous than leaving it.
“Such a scenario is possible. Moreover, there are already certain signs of unrest within the Civil Contract party. It is still unclear who will remain and who will be excluded from the party’s electoral list for the upcoming elections. One thing is clear: the ruling force will most likely be unable to maintain its current 72 mandates,” he said.
Hakobyan believes that the deputies who may find themselves outside the list could become a target group for the opposition. “These people will have little left to lose, and therefore, they will be able to act more freely. With consistent work, the opposition could take advantage of this opportunity,” he added.
According to him, the authorities will likely try to prevent such developments by offering those excluded from the list various positions within the executive branch — from regional governorates to other administrative structures.
At the same time, Hakobyan emphasized that street pressure will be the decisive factor for the opposition’s success.
“As far as I understand, the united opposition is preparing to intensify street protests. This pressure could become the key and decisive factor in the impeachment process. Under such circumstances, other political mechanisms may also become more effective,” Vigen Hakobyan stressed.