Recent statements by the President of Azerbaijan were a signal of Baku’s real intentions, according to military expert David Jamalyan.
He recalled that Ilham Aliyev declared readiness to recognize Armenia’s territorial integrity, while simultaneously noting that Azerbaijan has many reasons not to do so, and adding that this position could change at any moment.
According to Jamalyan, such wording indicates that Azerbaijan is keeping a broad margin of flexibility for its actions and is not abandoning its goals of further advancement. In his view, the positions already secured by Azerbaijani forces are not considered final borders by Baku, and this policy will be ongoing.
The expert draws parallels with the period of 2018–2020, recalling that before the 44-day war there was also a relative calm along the border. He noted that at that time Azerbaijan conducted military exercises in the Nakhijevan direction and, advancing in certain sections, reduced the “neutral zone.”
Afterward, the situation stabilized and there was no shooting, which many perceived as a sign of stability. However, that phase ended in large-scale hostilities. According to Jamalyan, the current developments follow a similar logic and may represent a preparatory phase.
Jamalyan argues that the absence of gunfire does not mean Azerbaijan has abandoned the use of force. He states that at this stage Azerbaijani armed forces are refraining from opening fire in order to create an illusion of peace, which contributes to the continuation of a власти promoting a “peace agenda.”
He believes that Aliyev and Pashinyan are effectively acting in coordination, maintaining the perception that the situation is under control and that the risk of war has decreased. He stresses that this is a manipulation.
In his assessment, Baku is simply waiting for the right moment to launch new military operations. According to him, that moment is linked to regional developments, particularly the situation surrounding Iran. If Iranian statehood weakens, Jamalyan does not rule out that Azerbaijan will try to take advantage of this and strike Armenia, with Syunik as a primary target.