Under the current political climate, the opposition continues to maintain an advantage in Yerevan, while the ruling authorities face serious problems in several administrative districts of the capital. This was stated by sociologist Artur Paronyan.
According to him, in the districts where the authorities still manage to preserve relatively stable positions, this happens mainly because of low voter turnout.
The expert particularly highlighted the Malatia-Sebastia district. According to him, it is one of the few parts of Yerevan where the authorities are not yet facing a “complete collapse,” largely due to low electoral participation.
“Malatia-Sebastia records the lowest voter turnout in the capital, which makes the government’s percentage figures appear relatively higher against the broader background,” Paronyan explained.
The opposition is strengthening in Yerevan
According to Paronyan, the opposition generally holds “very strong” positions in Yerevan, while dissatisfaction with the authorities is especially visible in the Kentron district.
He stated that in the city center the opposition is winning by a large margin.
One of the biggest surprises, according to the expert, has become Erebuni, where the ruling authorities may also suffer a “humiliating defeat.”
He noted that this is the first election in which the authorities are losing Erebuni by such a large gap. Previously, similar patterns were usually observed in Kentron and Arabkir.
However, this time, according to Paronyan, Arabkir has turned into the center of “vote fragmentation.”
He explained that Arabkir has become the district where almost all 19 political forces participating in the elections are able to collect votes. As a result, the opposition electorate is becoming divided.
“This is the phenomenon of these elections. Arabkir has become an ‘electoral dust mine,’” he stated.
The last-week consolidation factor
According to the expert, the situation in Arabkir may change as the elections approach because of the so-called “last-week consolidation” phenomenon, when opposition voters unite around the most competitive forces during the final stage.
At the same time, Paronyan noted that part of Armenia’s opposition electorate prefers not to openly reveal its political position until the very last moment.
According to him, supporters of the ruling authorities are easier to identify in sociological surveys because they do not avoid publicly expressing support, while part of the opposition vote remains “hidden” until the final phase of the elections.
The regional picture
The sociologist also addressed the situation in the regions. According to his assessment, the ruling authorities have overall lost around 20–25% of their support compared to 2021.
In his view, Kotayk can already be considered an opposition region. In Shirak, opposition sentiments are mainly shaped by Gyumri, while in Lori large cities also play an important role.
He stated that in Gegharkunik, which was previously considered one of the government’s strongest strongholds, the opposition may now gain an advantage, while the situation in Armavir remains relatively balanced.
Paronyan also noted that opposition sentiments are particularly strong in several parts of Syunik, especially in Kapan.
In Tavush, the picture is more mixed: in some communities the authorities maintain their positions, while in others the opposition could produce surprises.
According to Paronyan, the ruling authorities’ main support base continues to be rural settlements, where voting behavior differs significantly from the moods of Yerevan and large cities.