The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) expects the Armenian dram to maintain a strong exchange rate in 2026, forecasting an average annual rate of 376 drams per U.S. dollar.
“We forecast the average annual exchange rate of the dram against the dollar at 376 in 2026. Factors supporting a stronger national currency are expected to dominate throughout the year, including the recovery of exports and continued high tourism activity.
Large inflows of remittances will also support the dram. During January–April 2026, remittance inflows to Armenia, measured under the expanded methodology, increased by 17.2% year-on-year and reached $2 billion. In the medium term, we expect further growth in remittance volumes amid a recovery in Russia’s economic growth, which could provide additional support to the Armenian currency.
A high level of international reserves and a decline in the country risk premium strengthen Armenia’s external resilience and reduce the likelihood of sharp exchange-rate fluctuations. Armenia’s international reserves reached a record $5.5 billion in March 2026.
Higher interest rates will also support the dram. Increases in the refinancing rate and other interest rates across Armenia’s financial market will improve the attractiveness of dram-denominated assets and boost demand for the national currency,” the EDB said in its updated macroeconomic forecast for 2026–2028.
According to the bank’s projections, the average exchange rate in 2027–2028 will be around 388 drams per dollar. The moderate weakening of the dram will be driven by two main factors.
First, rising global prices for food and raw materials will increase the cost of imports and, consequently, raise demand for foreign currency.
Second, strong import demand will put additional pressure on the exchange rate. Growing consumption and investment activity are expected to support imports of goods and services, increasing the economy’s need for foreign currency.
Overall, the EDB expects the Armenian dram to remain relatively stable in the coming years, while forecasting a gradual and moderate depreciation in the medium term as import demand and external price pressures increase.