For nearly two weeks now, anti-government protests have continued across Iran, which, according to various sources, have been accompanied by hundreds of casualties. Although the incoming information is often contradictory and its reliability raises questions, one thing is clear: the level of internal political tension in the country has not yet declined.
Socio-Economic Crisis and External Factors
According to Iran expert Karen Mkrtchyan, the escalation of protests in recent weeks has been driven by both internal and external factors. On the domestic level, Iran is facing a severe socio-economic crisis, the existence of which has been officially acknowledged by the country’s top leadership, including the Supreme Leader. There is a whole set of accumulated problems in the country, and although the authorities are attempting to propose solutions, these efforts have so far been insufficient to ease public discontent.
At the same time, the expert emphasizes that Iran’s internal problems have never been purely internal. The country is located in a strategically important region of the Middle East and possesses vast hydrocarbon reserves, which keeps it under constant attention from external powers. As a result, a clear interest on the part of outside actors can also be observed in the current developments.
Protests Without a Leader
One of the key features of the current wave of protests, Mkrtchyan notes, is the absence of a clear leader. Within Iran, there is no political or public figure capable of acting as a unified representative of the opposition and sitting down at the negotiating table.
As an alternative, the son of the last Shah, who resides abroad, is sometimes mentioned; however, he also does not enjoy broad support among Iranians. Various names circulate on social media, but so far none is viewed as a real leader within the country itself. According to the expert, this represents a serious obstacle to the further development of the movement.
Contacts with the United States and Possible Deals
Mkrtchyan also stressed that Iran’s current system of governance has repeatedly demonstrated its resilience.
Despite the increasingly harsh military rhetoric, the international community has in recent days been actively discussing the possibility of contacts between Iran and the United States. In Mkrtchyan’s assessment, even under these tense conditions Iran is trying to carefully calculate its interests and may agree to limited concessions on certain issues.
The most likely area for such concessions, he believes, is the nuclear program, which could allow the American side to present the outcome as a political success. At the same time, the expert does not believe that Tehran is prepared to make broader concessions.
The issue of hydrocarbons may also become part of negotiations. Iran, with its vast oil and gas resources, could use this factor as a serious bargaining chip—especially given that U.S. President Donald Trump is well known for his deal-oriented approach to politics.