Amid the war in Ukraine, relations with Europe and economic problems, Russia is not interested in escalating the situation in the South Caucasus and will most likely be prepared to make certain compromises with Armenia until the war in Ukraine ends. Political analyst Stepan Danielyan made this statement.
According to him, Moscow currently faces numerous problems and does not want another region to become a source of tension. However, Danielyan believes that the policy pursued by the Armenian authorities could take the country down a path that is dangerous for Armenia.
“The policy pursued by the authorities is a policy of turning Armenia into a second Ukraine,” he said.
In Armenia’s Case, the Situation Is Even More Absurd
“And we have no land connection with Europe. This is even more absurd than the Ukrainian scenario,” the political analyst said.
He emphasized that Armenia borders Turkey, Azerbaijan, Georgia and Iran, while it has no land border with either Russia or the European Union.
Therefore, in his view, the process of European integration should also be considered in the context of Armenia’s geographical and security realities.
Danielyan drew a parallel with Ukraine’s steps toward NATO membership. He recalled that during Petro Poroshenko’s presidency, Ukraine’s strategic goal of joining NATO was enshrined in the country’s Constitution, after which a process began that led to war.
According to him, negotiations surrounding Ukraine are now considering an option under which the country would not join NATO and the corresponding provision would have to be removed from the Constitution through a referendum.
Armenia Has Fallen Into a Trap
Danielyan said Ukraine’s example should be viewed as a warning.
According to him, the foreign policy objective enshrined in the country’s Constitution ultimately failed to provide security, while the war left Ukraine facing severe demographic and social problems.
“You write a provision into the Constitution because of which you end up in a war, more than 12 million people from your population leave the country. Now in Ukraine there are four deaths for every child born, the population is in crisis, and after that you remove that provision — without ever seeing NATO,” he said.
According to the political analyst, Armenia’s process of joining the European Union could also create problems because its political objectives are not aligned with the country’s actual capabilities and existing economic ties.
“When that law was adopted, I realized that Armenia had fallen into a trap,” Danielyan said.
He noted that the prospect of Armenia becoming a member of the European Union is itself a separate subject for discussion and, in his assessment, the feasibility of that process raises serious questions.
However, even if membership does not take place, Armenia could face problems with the Eurasian Economic Union, within which it currently has “very serious economic cooperation.”
Danielyan argued that a change in foreign policy orientation cannot be limited to political statements alone.
It could have consequences for Armenia’s economic and security systems, particularly when the new direction does not yet provide the country with clear alternatives.