The main problem in Armenia-Russia relations is not Yerevan’s possible European integration or its continued membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. The central issue is Armenia’s unblocking process and control over regional transport routes, according to expert Yuri Movsesyan, who commented on the current state of bilateral relations.
Moscow’s Main Concern
Movsesyan said Armenia is unlikely to join the European Union in the near future. A more realistic scenario, in his view, would involve the country adopting a more independent foreign and economic policy.
“I do not think Armenia will join the European Union anytime soon. I consider it more realistic that Armenia could leave the EAEU and avoid joining any other integration process,” he said.
According to the expert, Moscow’s main concern is not Armenia’s potential EU membership or the possibility of its departure from the EAEU, but the opening of regional routes through Armenian territory.
“As long as Armenia remains in a suspended position, Russia does not want the country to be unblocked,” Movsesyan said.
He argued that transport and communication routes have been at the heart of almost every major regional process over the past three decades.
“If we look at the history of the last 30 years, including the Karabakh conflict, it was never only about Karabakh. The issue of unblocking was always behind it. There were discussions about a road through Meghri, different communication routes and even a negotiating option involving a connection to Armenia through Azerbaijan and Nagorno-Karabakh,” he said.
In his assessment, Russian policy was for many years based on maintaining a deadlock in the region.
“For a long time, Russia’s policy was to keep the conflict frozen. Later, when a settlement became necessary, the objective was to resolve the conflict while allowing Russia to take control of all Armenia’s routes and communication links,” Movsesyan said.
The situation has now changed, he added. The conflict no longer exists in its previous form, but a new phase has begun, centered on competition over reopening regional connections.
“Russia has lost its monopolistic position because alternative proposals now exist,” he said.
Railways at the Center of Armenia-Russia Relations
Movsesyan believes upcoming high-level contacts between Armenia and Russia will largely depend on infrastructure issues, particularly the railway system.
He said an April meeting between Armenian and Russian representatives revealed the real state of bilateral relations.
“It was a rare meeting in which representatives of Armenia and Russia at the highest level spoke quite openly about existing problems. Even from open sources, it was possible to assess the stage Armenian-Russian relations had reached,” he said.
According to the expert, the meeting did not produce progress. Instead, the two sides moved further apart.
Movsesyan believes a planned meeting between Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Russian President Vladimir Putin will take place only if Armenia meets Russia’s demands.
“The meeting will happen if Armenia has a document in which all the Russian side’s requirements are addressed. I believe the first item in that document will concern the railway,” he said.
The core struggle, according to the expert, is over communication routes.
“This is more about processes unfolding in another sphere. First and foremost, it is about the railway,” Movsesyan said.
TRIPP and Armenia’s Transport Routes
Movsesyan also drew a parallel with new regional projects, arguing that Armenia needs not only new roads but also their full integration into a broader transport network.
He recalled that the Armenia-U.S. strategic partnership document also referred to the possible reopening of the Kars-Gyumri railway in the context of the TRIPP project.
“There is concern in Armenia that TRIPP, in its current form and length, will not fully meet the country’s needs. It could satisfy Armenia only if the route, for example, re-enters Armenian territory through Nakhichevan. Only then could we speak about using Armenia’s full potential,” he said.
According to Movsesyan, Moscow understands that if Armenia resolves the railway issue and changes the current management model, Russia’s influence will be sharply reduced.
“If Armenia can recover the Russian concession through some formula — whether nationalization, transfer to an operator from another country or another option — it would mean Armenia’s hands are untied,” he said.
Iranian Gas as a Signal to Moscow
Movsesyan also addressed Armenia-Iran gas negotiations, saying the process is not merely a bilateral economic issue.
“Armenia-Iran negotiations on gas do not concern only Armenia and Iran. They also directly concern Russia,” he said.
According to the expert, Armenia’s gas infrastructure remains under Russian control.
“Today, all gas pipelines in Armenia, including the pipes that deliver gas to our homes, are Russian property. Iran is trying to challenge this monopolistic position by saying it can offer an alternative,” Movsesyan said.
He argued that Iran, despite facing a difficult international environment, continues to pursue regional projects.
“Iran is effectively operating in a wartime environment, but it has not forgotten important regional developments. The fact that gas supplies are now being discussed is also a signal to Moscow,” Yuri Movsesyan concluded.