One of the strategic objectives of Armenia’s current authorities is the country’s gradual withdrawal from the Russian vector. This is an extremely risky and adventurous policy which, however, may face serious limitations in its implementation. This was stated by political analyst Suren Surenyants. According to him, this is not about theoretical trends but about real processes that are already affecting Armenia’s foreign policy capabilities.
The Potential Impact of Global Agreements
The political analyst emphasizes the importance of possible global agreements between Russia and the United States as a key factor influencing regional and domestic political developments. According to him, today, alongside the ongoing war around Ukraine, negotiation platforms are also functioning, which indicates that the search for diplomatic solutions has not ceased.
If a certain Russian-American consensus is formed at the international level, Surenyants believes that the political environment on which the current authorities have built their foreign policy will also change. In that case, political models based on a rigid “West–Russia” confrontation may lose their relevance.
A New World Order and Armenia’s Place
According to Surenyants, the world is currently in a phase of the collapse of the old world order, while the new system is still in the process of taking shape. This process is accompanied by high turbulence, but, in his view, it cannot continue indefinitely.
The political analyst recalls that even during the Cold War, despite deep contradictions, there existed a system of relations between Washington and Moscow based on certain rules. By the same logic, today as well, even in the absence of friendly relations, a new structure of interaction between the major powers will eventually emerge.
Under these conditions, Armenia, as a small state, will inevitably have to adapt to the emerging new world order. According to Surenyants, as the new rules of the game become clearer, global turbulence will gradually subside, and states will be forced to operate within those rules—regardless of their own desires or political preferences.