The TRIPP program is gradually becoming more tangible: certain components are taking clearer shape, although the project as a whole has not yet been fully formed. This was stated by former Deputy Prime Minister of Armenia Vache Gabrielyan, commenting on the program’s economic efficiency and its potential consequences.
According to him, if TRIPP is viewed exclusively as a road passing through the Meghri section, it is not a particularly significant project from an economic standpoint. “This does not mean that the project is loss-making, but I do not believe its results can be substantial,” he stressed, adding that the problem lies in the extremely short length of that section.
In Gabrielyan’s assessment, revenues from this short stretch would accordingly be limited. Based on his calculations, it is possible to earn approximately $8–10 per ton of cargo. Even in a best-case scenario, if millions of tons pass along this route, total revenues—taking into account the 74/26 distribution ratio—would amount to only about $10–15 million at most.
“From the perspective of economic activity and the scale of Armenia’s current economy, this is not a significant result at all,” he noted, emphasizing that if TRIPP is seen as a revenue-generating activity through which Armenia is expected to receive substantial transit income, such expectations will not be met.
Between Two Extreme Approaches
Vache Gabrielyan recalled that two extreme approaches have consistently existed around this issue. One is the idea of a “Turanian corridor,” the other the “Crossroads of Peace.” By extremes, he explained, he does not mean political wording, but rather the logic of how border points function.
“What kind of content this program is ultimately filled with will determine whether it yields greater results or not,” he said.
According to him, current discussions around TRIPP are largely confined to the framework of relations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, whereas the essential question is whether it will actually lead to the real opening of shared border roads.
The Turkish Factor Is Key
Gabrielyan stressed that Turkey’s approach is well known: apart from Syunik, railway communication through other parts of Armenia should not function. In his view, if developments move in this direction, the outcome for Armenia would be far worse.
At the same time, he noted that opening roads and communications would change not only Armenia’s economic dynamics but also those of the entire region. This would affect both passenger and freight transportation, including transport via Georgia’s railway system, where tariffs are currently extremely high.
According to Gabrielyan, these tariffs could decrease, leading to a different logic for cargo transportation. However, everything depends on whether regional roads are put into operation—especially connections with Turkey—and, in particular, whether the railway from Yerevan to Gyumri, and from Gyumri to Kars, will continue to function.
Different Scenarios, No Clear Certainty
The former deputy prime minister also emphasized the condition of roads in the eastern section, starting from Ijevan, as well as the scale and logic of Armenia’s railway operations. According to him, fundamentally different scenarios may emerge depending on these factors.
“If, within these scenarios, Armenia becomes fully integrated into the map of communication routes and gains real participation in transit corridors, the economic benefits could be significantly greater,” he said.
However, Gabrielyan stressed that at present there is no concrete clarity regarding these economic benefits. According to him, they depend less on Azerbaijan and more on Turkey, which has not yet clarified its positions or openly articulated its approach.
He also noted that within Turkey’s internal discourse, projects are being discussed involving investments of around $3–4 billion to build a parallel railway from Kars to Nakhijevan. In his assessment, such a scenario would lead to a completely different outcome than if the railway were to operate through Gyumri toward Kars.
Investments, Technologies, and the Impact on Meghri
According to Gabrielyan, if TRIPP is considered as a standalone project, it could attract around $200–300 million in investments, and in the best case up to $500 million. However, these investments would be quite specific, largely not based on the use of local materials and resources, and would have a limited economic impact.
He also noted that new technologies are planned for implementation at border checkpoints, so that cargo movement can be carried out without inspections or with minimal checks.
As for the impact on Meghri, Gabrielyan offered a cautious assessment. According to him, it is difficult to say whether Meghri will begin to “flourish,” since the section is very small and stops are generally not planned there. Some stops may be possible, but for the most part, the route would simply function as a transit passage.
Conclusion: In the Absence of a Complete Picture
Vache Gabrielyan concluded that without a comprehensive understanding of the South Caucasus communication routes and a clear answer as to whether Armenia will become a full-fledged transit country, it is extremely difficult to make final assessments.
“If TRIPP is considered on its own, as a separate project, its economic impact is insignificant. If it is viewed within the logic of the ‘Crossroads of Peace’ as part of regional communications, the impact could be substantial. And if it is perceived as a ‘Turanian corridor,’ then its effect will be minimal,” he emphasized.