The “peace agenda” promoted by the authorities, which had served as the main pre-election scenario, has already been disrupted, and this may directly affect the election results. This opinion was expressed by political strategist Armen Badalyan.
According to him, the collapse of that scenario deprives the authorities of the main political message through which they were attempting to work with voters.
“In this situation, Civil Contract will begin losing votes. The authorities approached society with the message ‘peace or war’ — that was their main narrative. But once the scenario collapses, they lose their core message,” Badalyan stated.
The Authorities Become More Aggressive
According to the political strategist, political forces often change their behavior in such circumstances, becoming harsher, more emotional, and at times contradictory.
“When you lose your main theme, you begin reacting differently — insulting, threatening, and making various accusations,” he said.
Badalyan added that this is why accusations related to espionage began emerging precisely in the current political climate.
The Struggle Is Also Over the Anti-Electorate
According to the political strategist, voting trends in Armenia’s opposition field are shaped not only by support-based logic, but also by anti-electorate logic — voters who make decisions not based on whom they support, but on whom they want to politically defeat.
In his opinion, the authorities’ actions against Prosperous Armenia are aimed at redirecting part of their own anti-electorate toward that political force.
“By arresting Andranik Tevanyan, the second figure on Prosperous Armenia’s list, the authorities are trying to create the impression that Prosperous Armenia is their main rival. It has now become clear that Nikol Pashinyan’s entire anti-electorate is moving toward Robert Kocharyan, and not even toward the Strong Armenia alliance.
Now Pashinyan is trying to make sure that Gagik Tsarukyan is also perceived as a competitor, so that part of the anti-electorate vote becomes fragmented,” the political strategist believes.