The situation in the Middle East remains extremely tense: strikes on Iran continue, while contradictory statements circulate simultaneously — both about possible negotiations and about a new military escalation.
Political analyst Yervand Bozoyan identifies two main scenarios for the development of events: the launch of a ground military operation or its absence. According to him, the first option is extremely complex and risky. He recalls that during the 2003 operation against Iraq, the United States deployed about 250,000 troops and managed to achieve its goal. Today, however, Iran not only has a much larger population — around 92 million people — but the number of American forces in the region is incomparably smaller — approximately 50,000.
Bozoyan notes that a possible US invasion could turn into a prolonged and difficult war. In his assessment, Iran will use all its capabilities to prevent territorial losses, and Washington could find itself in a crisis similar to the one the Soviet Union experienced in Afghanistan.
Special attention is also paid to economic risks. The political analyst emphasizes that the Strait of Hormuz has strategic importance: about 20% of the world’s oil and roughly 30% of its gas pass through it. In the event of war, oil prices, according to various estimates, could reach $150–200 per barrel, which could lead to a severe crisis in the global economy.
“If oil prices exceed $170, the world economy could literally come to a standstill. The expected recession could even be more severe than the Great Depression of 1929,” Bozoyan stresses, referring to forecasts by international expert circles.
According to him, in the event of such developments, fuel and essential goods will become dramatically more expensive, which will lead to a decline in living standards in almost all countries of the world.