The United States has not achieved its primary objective — regime change in Iran. Political analyst Hayk Martirosyan stated this while commenting on developments in the Middle East.
Gaps in Washington’s strategic calculations
According to him, the U.S. political and military leadership did not carry out sufficient or comprehensive planning regarding Iran. Statements by President Donald Trump often contradicted each other. This created strategic inconsistency.
Martirosyan notes that a new understanding is emerging within American analytical circles. The initial goal — regime change — is not only unmet, but also extremely difficult to achieve under current conditions.
He emphasizes that airstrikes alone have never resulted in regime change. Such an outcome requires ground operations. However, deploying U.S. ground forces into Iran could lead to serious losses, both human and political.
Moreover, such a scenario could benefit Tehran. It may strengthen internal unity and increase resistance.
The Azerbaijan factor: when could Baku become involved
When discussing regional actors, Martirosyan highlights Azerbaijan. He stresses that Baku is not fully controlled by external powers.
According to him, Azerbaijan pursues an independent and often manipulative policy, even in its relations with the United States.
The analyst believes Azerbaijan will not engage in military actions based solely on external requests. Decisions will be made strictly based on its own interests. Turkey and Azerbaijan use their resources only within the limits of their strategic objectives.
Martirosyan does not rule out that under certain conditions Azerbaijani forces could enter Iranian territory. However, this would likely not happen under direct U.S. orders. A coordinated format with the U.S. and Israel is more probable.
He suggests this scenario could be linked to the “South Azerbaijan” project. The aim would be to separate Azerbaijani-populated regions from Iran and later integrate them into Azerbaijan.
At the same time, he warns that if regional tensions escalate further, Azerbaijan could also initiate military actions in the direction of Armenia.